After two intense weeks in Belém, Brazil, it’s clear that the UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, delivered a mix of progress, political friction, and sobering reminders about the limits of the multilateral process. From the ground, it felt like a could-be-historic COP wrapped inside an exhausting logistical challenge, one that reflected the very inequities the climate crisis deepens.

Here are five core outcomes from COP30, each paired with what to watch next as the world moves into 2026:

1. The fossil fuel roadmap collapsed; now the world looks to Colombia’s 2026 conference

The defining moment of COP30 was the chaotic final plenary, where a broad coalition of Latin American, European and climate-vulnerable countries pushed for a clear, time-bound fossil fuel transition roadmap. Russia, Saudi Arabia, India and other major producers blocked it entirely. The UNFCCC’s consensus model once again proved incapable of advancing fossil-fuel phase-out.

What to watch in 2026 on the fossil fuels phase out:

The political energy pushing for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels did not disappear; it shifted. COP30’s most concrete follow-up will be the Fossil Fuel Just Transition Conference in April 2026, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands. Early supporters already include Chile, Costa Rica, Denmark, France, Spain, Kenya, Samoa and several Caribbean states. If they build a credible roadmap outside the consensus constraints, it could become the first global process explicitly focused on managing a just fossil-fuel phase-out. If it stalls, it will confirm how politically stuck the world still is.

2. Adaptation finance was tripled, but delayed and still without a delivery plan

Tripling adaptation finance to roughly USD 120 billion a year by 2035 was one of COP30’s few headline achievements. But the shift from 2030 to 2035 weakens its political and scientific relevance. And without clarity on how the promised USD 1.3 trillion per year will be mobilised, the headline risks being just that, a headline.

What to watch in 2026 on adaptation finance:

Countries must now outline real pathways: how much will come from public grants, concessional lending, MDB reforms, private investment and debt restructuring. Clear 2030 milestones and independent monitoring will determine whether “tripling” becomes real delivery or remains symbolic. Adaptation has always depended primarily on public finance, without credible public contributions, the number will not translate into action.

3. GGA indicators were adopted, but remain unusable without major refinement and support

An agreement on a list of 59 Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) indicators (that cut shot a more comprehensive and workable list of 100 previously approved in June in Bonn) was framed as a step forward. In reality, many are vague, unmeasurable, or require data that vulnerable countries cannot realistically collect. Several observers and negotiators described the new indicators as “unworkable”.

What to watch in 2026 on the Global Goal on Adaptation:

Expect pressure to operationalise the indicators, clarify methodologies and secure technical and financial support so countries can use them. Their credibility will depend on whether they evolve into practical planning tools (informing investment in water, health, resilience and early-warning systems) or remain a complex, detached framework that no one can operationalise.

4. The Just Transition Work Programme and Gender Action Plan were adopted, delivery is now the test

COP30 negotiations delivered, at least, two meaningful advances: the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) and a renewed Gender Action Plan (GAP). These frameworks signal a shift toward a more inclusive, equity-centred transition, placing workers, communities, women and vulnerable groups at the heart of climate policy.

What to watch in 2026 on Just Transition and the GAP:

The challenge now is implementation. The JTWP must move from principles to tangible measures: social protection systems, reskilling programmes, community transition plans and support for regions dependent on fossil fuels. The GAP requires real integration into national budgets, policies and data systems. Both need political attention, funding and critically public visibility. Without communication and storytelling, they risk becoming technical annexes instead of drivers of social legitimacy.

5. The finance roadmap remains unclear; trust depends on what happens next

Beyond adaptation, COP30 did not deliver clarity on how the world will finance mitigation (the technical word for greenhouse gas emission reductions), resilience and loss and damage. Developed countries refused to reopen discussions on the USD 300 billion NCQG, and the late-arriving Baku–Belém USD 1.3 trillion roadmap was barely discussed and simply “noted” in the final text.

What to watch in 2026 on finance:

The next two years will determine whether the process can produce predictable, transparent and equitable climate finance. The new finance work programme must address public finance obligations, the future role of multilateral developments baks, debt relief for vulnerable countries, and accountability systems to track real flows, not just political announcements. Without clearer pathways, the credibility of the entire COP process is at risk.

Final reflections from Belém

One additional source of frustration at this “Amazon COP” was the absence of a formal decision on a roadmap to halt deforestation. Expectations had been high: hosting the summit in Belém, at the gateway to the world’s largest tropical forest, created political and symbolic pressure for a clear, time-bound plan to end forest loss. Yet despite broad support from Amazon countries and many forest-rich nations, negotiations stalled over financing, sovereignty concerns and divergent definitions of what counts as “deforestation-free.” The outcome was reduced to general language with no binding milestones. 

For a COP held in the Amazon, the lack of a concrete deforestation roadmap was a missed opportunity and a reminder that even areas with strong public consensus still struggle to translate ambition into negotiated commitments.

COP30 was imperfect, messy and at times deeply disappointing (most COPs are). But it also forced the world to confront some hard truths: the multilateral system is under strain although still alive and delivering, geopolitical and economic tensions are delaying the transition and climate change is today less of the top priority for politicians, the media or the public.

Yet COP30 also revealed that the climate community is not throwing the sponge. Engaged negotiators, advocates, experts, Indigenous peoples and first-line communities are not only not giving up but improving how they organise and collaborate. The energy, visibility and solidarity on the ground were powerful. We saw the first significant climate march since the one in Glasgow in 2021 and after three COPs hosted in countries with limited or innexistant rights to protest. 

Those stories matter as they shape our worldview and our expectations on what is possible as we move forward. These stories of change and possibility build pressure and open political space.

In the end, beyond political decisions and negotiated texts, the COP is clearly a climate action powerhouse for the non-State actors and a unique communication platform. COP has become the global stage to showcase and accelerate the transition if used well.

After Belém and as we move into COP31, the message is clear: we need less rhetoric, more truth and more courage in action and narratives that connect climate ambition with human dignity, justice, and real solutions.

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Cover photo: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the COP30 opening in Belém, Brazil, on 10 November 2025. Photo by 10 Billion Solutions / Mariana Castaño Cano.